An options pricing approach to election prediction
Published in Quantitative Finance, 2020
Recommended citation: Fry, J., & Burke, M. (2020). An options-pricing approach to election prediction. Quantitative Finance, 20(10), 1583-1589. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2020.1757136
Election forecasting errors appear chiefly due to the mode of extracting outcomes from the polled share of the vote.